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FC Porto vs Feirense — Primeira Liga 2026

FC Porto
FC Porto
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Feirense
Feirense
M. Marega 80'
Felipe 22'
10/28/2018Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 8Estádio do Dragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

FC Porto75%
×Draw18%
Feirense8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Porto
2.12
Feirense
0.52

FC Porto creates 308% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 21 away

creates per match

FC Porto
2.37
Feirense
0.43

allows per match

FC Porto
0.60
Feirense
1.86

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par
Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Feirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw
92%
FC Porto or Feirense
82%
Draw or Feirense
25%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+
49%
Feirense wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals
88%
FC Porto 2+ goals
62%
FC Porto 3+ goals
35%
Feirense 1+ goals
41%
Feirense 2+ goals
10%
Feirense 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)
90%
Feirense (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.60 · 139 matches

Feirense away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 2.37 + Feirense defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.12

Feirense attack 0.43 + FC Porto defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

FC Porto scores more
75%
level
18%
Feirense scores more
8%

FC Porto at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Óliver TorresFC PortoFC Porto · M
8.5

Match Events

22'
Felipe↳ Jesús Corona
50'
Vitor Bruno
58'
Luís Machado
63'
Alphonse
64'
H. Herrera← Jesús Corona
78'
Moussa Marega
80'
M. Marega
81'
João Silva← Sturgeon
81'
João Tavares← K. Alphonse
82'
André Pereira← M. Marega
86'
Adrián← Y. Brahimi
88'
B. Gómez← Paraiba

Possession

60%FC

Shots

17FC

Pass accuracy

56%FC

Statistics

FCFeirense
Overview
60%Possession40%
17Total Shots6
4Corners6
21Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots6
7On Target3
9Off Target1
1Blocked2
13Inside Box4
4Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
460Total Passes293
384Accurate Passes191
83%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
21Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
3Offsides4

Match Recap: FC Porto vs Feirense

FC Porto beat Feirense 2-0 in Primeira Liga on October 28, 2018.

Goals: Felipe (22'), M. Marega (80').

FC Porto controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estádio do Dragão in Porto.