FC Porto 2–1 Feirense: Result & Stats

FC Porto

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Feirense

Y. Brahimi 59'

Sérgio Oliveira 37'

José Valencia 90+1'

5/6/2018

Primeira Liga · Round 33Estádio do Dragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

FC Porto75%

×Draw18%

Feirense8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC PortoExpected goals in this matchFeirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.52

FC Porto

2.12

Feirense

0.52

FC Porto creates 308% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 21 away

2.37

creates per match

0.43

0.60

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

FC Porto

2.37

Feirense

0.43

allows per match

FC Porto

0.60

Feirense

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par

Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Feirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw

92%

FC Porto or Feirense

82%

Draw or Feirense

25%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+

49%

Feirense wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals

88%

FC Porto 2+ goals

62%

FC Porto 3+ goals

35%

Feirense 1+ goals

41%

Feirense 2+ goals

10%

Feirense 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)

90%

Feirense (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.60 · 139 matches

Feirense away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 2.37 + Feirense defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.12

Feirense attack 0.43 + FC Porto defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

FC Porto scores more

75%

level

18%

Feirense scores more

8%

FC Porto at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Ricardo Pereira

FC Porto · D

7.9

Match Events

37'

Sérgio Oliveira

41'

Rafael Crivellaro

46'

Hernâni← Otavinho

56'

V. Aboubakar← Tiquinho

58'

Hugo Seco← Paraiba

59'

Y. Brahimi↳ V. Aboubakar

70'

Óliver Torres← D. Reyes

72'

Antonio Briseño

81'

José Valencia← Diga

82'

A. Karamanos← João Silva

85'

Sérgio Oliveira

90'

Hugo Seco

90+1'

José Valencia↳ A. Kakuba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFeirense

Overview

69%Possession31%

18Total Shots8

3Corners5

11Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots8

5On Target1

11Off Target5

2Blocked2

11Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

503Total Passes215

429Accurate Passes128

85%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0