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FC Porto vs Chaves — Primeira Liga 2018

FC Porto
FC Porto
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chaves
Chaves
12/29/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 15Estádio Do Dragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FC Porto69%
×Draw19%
Chaves11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Porto
2.05
Chaves
0.68

FC Porto creates 201% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 52 away

creates per match

FC Porto
2.40
Chaves
0.75

allows per match

FC Porto
0.61
Chaves
1.71

finishing

FC Porto+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Porto or draw
89%
FC Porto or Chaves
81%
Draw or Chaves
31%

Winning margin

FC Porto wins by 2+
44%
Chaves wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Porto 1+ goals
87%
FC Porto 2+ goals
61%
FC Porto 3+ goals
33%
Chaves 1+ goals
49%
Chaves 2+ goals
15%
Chaves 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FC Porto (draw refunded)
86%
Chaves (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.61 · 136 matches

Chaves away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto attack 2.40 + Chaves defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.05

Chaves attack 0.75 + FC Porto defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

FC Porto scores more
69%
level
19%
Chaves scores more
11%

FC Porto at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Porto vs Chaves

FC Porto beat Chaves 1-0 in Primeira Liga on December 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Do Dragão in Porto.