Chaves vs FC Porto — Primeira Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 52+ matches
Chaves22%
FC Porto54%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Porto creates 72% more chances
Season form · 52 home / 139 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chaves ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chaves at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches
FC Porto away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.78 · 139 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chaves attack 1.21 + FC Porto defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.99
FC Porto attack 1.83 + Chaves defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.70
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
FC Porto at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Benfica
SC Braga
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Arouca
Estoril
Alverca
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
Nacional
Casa Pia
Estrela
Tondela
AVS
TorreenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Chaves host FC Porto on Saturday, 4 May 2024 at 19:30. The match is part of the Primeira Liga 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Chaves vs FC Porto
FC Porto beat Chaves 3-0 in Primeira Liga on May 4, 2024.
Goals: Francisco Conceição (27'), Evanilson (45+1'), M. Taremi (73' pen).
FC Porto controlled possession (75%) and registered 10 shots to 4.
The match was played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Chaves.