FC Porto B 0–0 Chaves: Result & Stats

FC Porto B

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chaves

2/20/2022

Segunda Liga · Round 23Estádio Luís Filipe Menezes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

FC Porto B37%

×Draw27%

Chaves36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Porto BExpected goals in this matchChaves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.26

FC Porto B

1.27

Chaves

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 78 away

1.42

creates per match

1.28

1.24

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

FC Porto B

1.42

Chaves

1.28

allows per match

FC Porto B

1.24

Chaves

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Porto B+0.00on par

Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Porto B ↓

Chaves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Porto B or draw

64%

FC Porto B or Chaves

73%

Draw or Chaves

63%

Winning margin

FC Porto B wins by 2+

16%

Chaves wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Porto B 1+ goals

72%

FC Porto B 2+ goals

36%

FC Porto B 3+ goals

14%

Chaves 1+ goals

72%

Chaves 2+ goals

36%

Chaves 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Porto B (draw refunded)

50%

Chaves (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Porto B at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 125 matches

Chaves away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.12 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Porto B attack 1.42 + Chaves defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Chaves attack 1.28 + FC Porto B defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Porto B scores more

37%

level

27%

Chaves scores more

36%

FC Porto B at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Porto B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Wellington Carvalho

27'

Mor Ndiaye

46'

Sidnei Tavares← M. Ndiaye

67'

Jô← Platiny

70'

Peglow← Silvestre Varela

76'

Batxi← Wellington Carvalho

76'

Adriano Castanheira← Juninho

79'

João Marcelo

82'

Sidnei Tavares

85'

Guima← N. Obiora

88'

Leonardo Borges← Gonçalo Borges

90'

Guima

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCChaves

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots6

4Corners6

23Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots6

3On Target2

4Off Target4

Passing

47%Possession53%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1