Chaves 0–1 FC Porto B: Result & Stats

Chaves

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Porto B

D. Andrade 41'

11/8/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 11Estadio Municipal de Chaves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Chaves45%

×Draw27%

FC Porto B28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChavesExpected goals in this matchFC Porto B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.06

Chaves

1.43

FC Porto B

1.06

Chaves creates 35% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 128 away

1.34

creates per match

1.15

0.97

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Chaves

1.34

FC Porto B

1.15

allows per match

Chaves

0.97

FC Porto B

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par

FC Porto B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

FC Porto B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chaves or draw

72%

Chaves or FC Porto B

73%

Draw or FC Porto B

55%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+

22%

FC Porto B wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals

76%

Chaves 2+ goals

42%

Chaves 3+ goals

17%

FC Porto B 1+ goals

65%

FC Porto B 2+ goals

29%

FC Porto B 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)

62%

FC Porto B (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.97 · 79 matches

FC Porto B away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.52 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.34 + FC Porto B defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

FC Porto B attack 1.15 + Chaves defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chaves scores more

45%

level

27%

FC Porto B scores more

28%

Chaves at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

D. Andrade

FC Porto B · M

8.6

Match Events

-5'

-5'

38'

41'

48'

53'

57'

60'

D. Kusso← Kiko

60'

Joao Teixeira← P. Pinho

60'

A. Miranda← Y. Karamoh

67'

U. Milovanovic← Z. Muscat

67'

Tiago Almeida← Reinaldo

72'

David Kusso

73'

T. Melnichenko← L. Vonic

73'

T. Silva← J. Teixeira

79'

86'

90+5'

90'

90'

D. Rodrigues← B. Caicedo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChavesFC

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots9

11Corners6

16Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots9

3On Target3

4Off Target3

7Blocked3

8Inside Box3

6Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

463Total Passes243

386Accurate Passes183

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls16

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1