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FC Politehnica Timisoara vs Brașov Steagul Renaște — Liga II 2018

FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brașov Steagul Renaște
Brașov Steagul Renaște
8/20/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 3Stadionul Ştiinţa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara29%
×Draw27%
Brașov Steagul Renaște45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.06
Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.40

Brașov Steagul Renaște creates 32% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.07
Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.76

allows per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.04
Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.06

finishing

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par
Brașov Steagul Renaște+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Politehnica Timisoara ↓

Brașov Steagul Renaște →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Politehnica Timisoara or draw
55%
FC Politehnica Timisoara or Brașov Steagul Renaște
73%
Draw or Brașov Steagul Renaște
71%

Winning margin

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
11%
Brașov Steagul Renaște wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
65%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
29%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
9%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 1+ goals
75%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 2+ goals
41%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
39%
Brașov Steagul Renaște (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Politehnica Timisoara at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

Brașov Steagul Renaște away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 1.07 + Brașov Steagul Renaște defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Brașov Steagul Renaște attack 1.76 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
29%
level
27%
Brașov Steagul Renaște scores more
45%

Brașov Steagul Renaște at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brașov Steagul Renaște will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: FC Politehnica Timisoara 0–0 Brașov Steagul Renaște

FC Politehnica Timisoara and Brașov Steagul Renaște drew 0-0 in Liga II on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Ştiinţa in Timişoara.