Brașov Steagul Renaște 1–0 FC Politehnica Timisoara

Brașov Steagul Renaște

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Politehnica Timisoara

5/21/2022

Liga II · Relegation Play-offsStadionul Tineretului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Brașov Steagul Renaște57%

×Draw23%

FC Politehnica Timisoara20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brașov Steagul RenașteExpected goals in this matchFC Politehnica Timisoara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.98

Brașov Steagul Renaște

1.83

FC Politehnica Timisoara

0.98

Brașov Steagul Renaște creates 87% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 70 away

2.44

creates per match

0.83

1.13

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Brașov Steagul Renaște

2.44

FC Politehnica Timisoara

0.83

allows per match

Brașov Steagul Renaște

1.13

FC Politehnica Timisoara

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brașov Steagul Renaște+0.00on par

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brașov Steagul Renaște ↓

FC Politehnica Timisoara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Brașov Steagul Renaște or draw

80%

Brașov Steagul Renaște or FC Politehnica Timisoara

77%

Draw or FC Politehnica Timisoara

43%

Winning margin

Brașov Steagul Renaște wins by 2+

33%

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brașov Steagul Renaște 1+ goals

84%

Brașov Steagul Renaște 2+ goals

54%

Brașov Steagul Renaște 3+ goals

28%

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals

62%

FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals

26%

FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Brașov Steagul Renaște (draw refunded)

74%

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brașov Steagul Renaște at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brașov Steagul Renaște attack 2.44 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.83

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 0.83 + Brașov Steagul Renaște defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Brașov Steagul Renaște scores more

57%

level

23%

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more

20%

Brașov Steagul Renaște at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Brașov Steagul Renaște will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff