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FC Politehnica Timisoara vs ACS Sirineasa — Liga II 2018

FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
CANC
08:00
ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
4/4/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 28Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara42%
×Draw28%
ACS Sirineasa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.31
ACS Sirineasa
1.08

FC Politehnica Timisoara creates 21% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 84 away

creates per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.07
ACS Sirineasa
1.11

allows per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.04
ACS Sirineasa
1.56

finishing

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par
ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Politehnica Timisoara ↓

ACS Sirineasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Politehnica Timisoara or draw
69%
FC Politehnica Timisoara or ACS Sirineasa
72%
Draw or ACS Sirineasa
58%

Winning margin

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
19%
ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
73%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
38%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
14%
ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
66%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
29%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
58%
ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Politehnica Timisoara at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 1.07 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
42%
level
28%
ACS Sirineasa scores more
31%

FC Politehnica Timisoara at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Politehnica Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Politehnica Timisoara vs ACS Sirineasa — Match Preview

FC Politehnica Timisoara face ACS Sirineasa on April 4, 2020 in this Liga II fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC Politehnica Timisoara host ACS Sirineasa at Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.