ACS Sirineasa 1–4 FC Politehnica Timisoara

ACS Sirineasa

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

FC Politehnica Timisoara

9/28/2019

Liga II · Round 9Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

ACS Sirineasa40%

×Draw27%

FC Politehnica Timisoara33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ACS SirineasaExpected goals in this matchFC Politehnica Timisoara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

ACS Sirineasa

1.29

FC Politehnica Timisoara

1.15

ACS Sirineasa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 70 away

1.36

creates per match

0.83

1.47

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

ACS Sirineasa

1.36

FC Politehnica Timisoara

0.83

allows per match

ACS Sirineasa

1.47

FC Politehnica Timisoara

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Sirineasa ↓

FC Politehnica Timisoara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

ACS Sirineasa or draw

67%

ACS Sirineasa or FC Politehnica Timisoara

73%

Draw or FC Politehnica Timisoara

60%

Winning margin

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+

18%

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals

72%

ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals

37%

ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals

14%

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals

68%

FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals

32%

FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)

55%

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Sirineasa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.36 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 0.83 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ACS Sirineasa scores more

40%

level

27%

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more

33%

ACS Sirineasa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ACS Sirineasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff