FC Politehnica Timisoara 0–1 ACS Poli Timisoara

FC Politehnica Timisoara

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ACS Poli Timisoara

4/26/2019

Liga II · Round 32Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara55%

×Draw26%

ACS Poli Timisoara20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Politehnica TimisoaraExpected goals in this matchACS Poli Timisoara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.81

FC Politehnica Timisoara

1.54

ACS Poli Timisoara

0.81

FC Politehnica Timisoara creates 90% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 19 away

1.07

creates per match

0.58

1.04

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara

1.07

ACS Poli Timisoara

0.58

allows per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara

1.04

ACS Poli Timisoara

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par

ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Politehnica Timisoara ↓

ACS Poli Timisoara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FC Politehnica Timisoara or draw

80%

FC Politehnica Timisoara or ACS Poli Timisoara

74%

Draw or ACS Poli Timisoara

45%

Winning margin

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+

29%

ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals

79%

FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals

45%

FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals

20%

ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals

56%

ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals

19%

ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)

73%

ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Politehnica Timisoara at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

ACS Poli Timisoara away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 1.07 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 0.58 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more

55%

level

26%

ACS Poli Timisoara scores more

20%

FC Politehnica Timisoara at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Politehnica Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff