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ACS Poli Timisoara vs FC Politehnica Timisoara — Liga II 2018

ACS Poli Timisoara
ACS Poli Timisoara
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
10/20/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 13Stadionul Electrica (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ACS Poli Timisoara35%
×Draw28%
FC Politehnica Timisoara37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.14
FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

creates per match

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.05
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.83

allows per match

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.53
FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.23

finishing

ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par
FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Poli Timisoara ↓

FC Politehnica Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

ACS Poli Timisoara or draw
63%
ACS Poli Timisoara or FC Politehnica Timisoara
72%
Draw or FC Politehnica Timisoara
65%

Winning margin

ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+
14%
FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals
68%
ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals
32%
ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals
11%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
69%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
33%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)
49%
FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Poli Timisoara at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 1.05 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 0.83 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

ACS Poli Timisoara scores more
35%
level
28%
FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
37%

FC Politehnica Timisoara at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Politehnica Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: ACS Poli Timisoara 1–2 FC Politehnica Timisoara

FC Politehnica Timisoara beat ACS Poli Timisoara 2-1 in Liga II on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Electrica (Timişoara).