FC OSS 2–0 Dordrecht: Result & Stats

FC OSS

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dordrecht

G. Korte 24', 14'

4/19/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 35Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC OSS42%

×Draw23%

Dordrecht35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC OSSExpected goals in this matchDordrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.60

FC OSS

1.75

Dordrecht

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.54

creates per match

1.50

1.71

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

FC OSS

1.54

Dordrecht

1.50

allows per match

FC OSS

1.71

Dordrecht

1.95

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

FC OSS+0.17scores more

Dordrecht-0.50scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

Dordrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw

65%

FC OSS or Dordrecht

77%

Draw or Dordrecht

58%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+

22%

Dordrecht wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals

83%

FC OSS 2+ goals

52%

FC OSS 3+ goals

25%

Dordrecht 1+ goals

80%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

47%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)

54%

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Dordrecht away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.95 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.54 + Dordrecht defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.75

Dordrecht attack 1.50 + FC OSS defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC OSS scores more

42%

level

23%

Dordrecht scores more

35%

FC OSS at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC OSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Korte

FC OSS · F

8.9

Match Events

14'

G. Korte↳ L. Slagveer

24'

G. Korte↳ M. Hinoke

39'

Delano Vianello

46'

L. Seydoux← R. Akmum

46'

B. Scholte← G. Parlanti

57'

T. Wildeboer← A. Allemeersch

62'

T. Sanne← M. Afaker

62'

J. Slory← J. van der Sluijs

67'

L. Miguel← L. Slagveer

82'

M. Esajas← M. van Rooijen

82'

T. Cox← J. Zimmerman

82'

T. van der Werff← M. Hinoke

84'

Devin Haen

84'

C. Olde Keizer← J. Hilton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCDordrecht

Overview

25%Possession75%

8Total Shots28

3Corners18

15Fouls6

Shots

8Total Shots28

4On Target6

3Off Target8

1Blocked14

4Inside Box16

4Outside Box12

Passing

25%Possession75%

205Total Passes564

121Accurate Passes452

59%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2