Dordrecht 3–1 FC OSS: Result & Stats

Dordrecht

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC OSS

K. Osundina 90+1'

M. Suray 58'

L. Seydoux 21'

D. Ladan 74'

4/19/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 35M-Scores Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Dordrecht51%

×Draw24%

FC OSS25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DordrechtExpected goals in this matchFC OSS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.07

Dordrecht

1.66

FC OSS

1.07

Dordrecht creates 55% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.53

creates per match

1.21

0.93

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Dordrecht

1.53

FC OSS

1.21

allows per match

Dordrecht

0.93

FC OSS

1.79

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Dordrecht-0.36scores less

FC OSS-0.35scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordrecht ↓

FC OSS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dordrecht or draw

75%

Dordrecht or FC OSS

76%

Draw or FC OSS

49%

Winning margin

Dordrecht wins by 2+

27%

FC OSS wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dordrecht 1+ goals

81%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

49%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

23%

FC OSS 1+ goals

66%

FC OSS 2+ goals

29%

FC OSS 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

68%

FC OSS (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordrecht at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 6 matches

FC OSS away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordrecht attack 1.53 + FC OSS defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.66

FC OSS attack 1.21 + Dordrecht defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dordrecht scores more

51%

level

24%

FC OSS scores more

25%

Dordrecht at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dordrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

L. Seydoux

Dordrecht · D

8.3

Match Events

21'

L. Seydoux

45+1'

Jop van den Avert

46'

D. Ladan← J. Eijgenraam

46'

J. Kuijpers← J. Mulder

52'

Lars Nieuwpoort

58'

M. Suray↳ S. ’t Zand

60'

K. Osundina← R. Shein

66'

A. Stensrud← A. Allemeersch

67'

X. Lambrix← L. Nieuwpoort

71'

B. Smolarczyk← J. van der Avert

74'

D. Ladan↳ I. Pata

76'

T. van Leeuwen← G. Damen

82'

Thijs van Leeuwen

85'

Sven Zitman

90+1'

K. Osundina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DordrechtFC

Overview

66%Possession34%

21Total Shots17

5Corners6

11Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots17

8On Target4

9Off Target9

4Blocked4

17Inside Box9

4Outside Box8

Passing

66%Possession34%

539Total Passes263

451Accurate Passes164

84%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: Dordrecht 3–1 FC OSS

Dordrecht beat FC OSS 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on April 19, 2024.

Goals: L. Seydoux (21'), M. Suray (58'), D. Ladan (74'), K. Osundina (90+1').

Dordrecht controlled possession (66%) and registered 21 shots to 17.

The match was played at M-Scores Stadion in Dordrecht.

Dordrecht vs FC OSS — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Dordrecht 3–1 FC OSS