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FC Orenburg vs Baltika — Premier League 2018

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
Preview
16:00
Baltika
Baltika
11/21/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Gazovik Stadium
Big match
39%
FC Orenburg
model favours
39%28%34%

Baltika have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FC Orenburg39%
×Draw28%
Baltika34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.26
Baltika
1.15

FC Orenburg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 30 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.39
Baltika
1.10

allows per match

FC Orenburg
1.20
Baltika
1.13

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
66%
FC Orenburg or Baltika
72%
Draw or Baltika
61%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
17%
Baltika wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
72%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
36%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
13%
Baltika 1+ goals
68%
Baltika 2+ goals
32%
Baltika 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
54%
Baltika (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.39 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Baltika attack 1.10 + FC Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
39%
level
28%
Baltika scores more
34%

FC Orenburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Baltika score first in only 27% of matches
  • Baltika have scored in 8 games running
  • FC Orenburg win just 16% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — FC Orenburg play Attack-heavy, Baltika Direct / counter-attacking
  • FC Orenburg fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Orenburg
Attack-heavy
Baltika
Direct / counter-attacking
48%Possession42%
77%Pass accuracy67%
14.2Shots12.0
1.86xGBiggest gap1.42
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC OrenburgBaltika

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
FC Orenburg
3
Draws
2
Baltika
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 63%
0–02–31–00–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Orenburg
WLWLL
Baltika
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Orenburg face Baltika (Premier League)

Premier League returns with FC Orenburg hosting Baltika. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Orenburg host Baltika at Gazovik Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.