FC Nurnberg vs Borussia Dortmund — Bundesliga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 24+ matches
FC Nurnberg29%
Borussia Dortmund46%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Borussia Dortmund creates 32% more chances
Season form · 24 home / 111 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Nurnberg ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Nurnberg at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches
Borussia Dortmund away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Nurnberg attack 1.00 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16
Borussia Dortmund attack 1.89 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.53
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Borussia Dortmund at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Borussia Dortmund substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Augsburg
FSV Mainz 05
Union Berlin
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
Werder Bremen
VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Heidenheim
FC St. Pauli
SC Paderborn 07If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FC Nurnberg host Borussia Dortmund on Saturday, 21 September 2013 at 13:30. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2026/2027 season.
Bundesliga: FC Nurnberg 1–1 Borussia Dortmund
FC Nurnberg and Borussia Dortmund drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on September 21, 2013.
Goals: M. Schmelzer (37'), P. Nilsson (51').
The match was played at Grundig-Stadion (Nürnberg).