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Borussia Dortmund vs FC Nurnberg — Bundesliga 2026

Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Nurnberg
FC Nurnberg
J. Weigl 88'
J. Sancho 85'
M. Akanji 74'
M. Reus 58', 32'
A. Hakimi 49'
J. Bruun Larsen 9'
9/26/2018BundesligaBundesliga · Round 5Signal Iduna Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Borussia Dortmund71%
×Draw17%
FC Nurnberg13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Dortmund
2.51
FC Nurnberg
0.96

Borussia Dortmund creates 161% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 26 away

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund
2.71
FC Nurnberg
0.81

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund
1.11
FC Nurnberg
2.31

finishing

Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par
FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund ↓

FC Nurnberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund or draw
87%
Borussia Dortmund or FC Nurnberg
83%
Draw or FC Nurnberg
29%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+
48%
FC Nurnberg wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals
92%
Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
71%
Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals
45%
FC Nurnberg 1+ goals
62%
FC Nurnberg 2+ goals
25%
FC Nurnberg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)
85%
FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.11 · 110 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund attack 2.71 + FC Nurnberg defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.51

FC Nurnberg attack 0.81 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Borussia Dortmund scores more
71%
level
17%
FC Nurnberg scores more
13%

Borussia Dortmund at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. ReusBorussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund · M
8.7

Match Events

1'
Yuya Kubo
9'
J. Bruun Larsen↳ C. Pulisic
32'
M. Reus↳ M. Philipp
33'
Lukas Mühl
49'
A. Hakimi↳ M. Reus
58'
M. Reus↳ J. Bruun Larsen
62'
S. Kagawa← M. Reus
62'
J. Weigl← A. Witsel
62'
E. Löwen← R. Bauer
70'
M. Ishak← A. Fuchs
74'
J. Sancho← J. Bruun Larsen
74'
M. Akanji
85'
J. Sancho↳ T. Delaney
86'
Matheus Pereira← Y. Kubo
88'
J. Weigl↳ J. Sancho

Possession

72%Borussia

Shots

19Borussia

Pass accuracy

54%Borussia

Statistics

BorussiaFC
Overview
72%Possession28%
19Total Shots4
4Corners5
6Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots4
10On Target1
4Off Target1
5Blocked2
12Inside Box4
7Outside Box0
Passing
72%Possession28%
864Total Passes318
802Accurate Passes250
93%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides4

Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund 7–0 FC Nurnberg

Borussia Dortmund beat FC Nurnberg 7-0 in Bundesliga on September 26, 2018.

Goals: J. Bruun Larsen (9'), M. Reus (32', 58'), A. Hakimi (49'), M. Akanji (74'), J. Sancho (85'), J. Weigl (88').

Borussia Dortmund controlled possession (72%) and registered 19 shots to 4.

The match was played at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund.