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FC Nöttingen vs FC 08 Villingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Nöttingen
FC Nöttingen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC 08 Villingen
FC 08 Villingen
4/2/2026Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 26Kleiner-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

FC Nöttingen46%
×Draw22%
FC 08 Villingen32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nöttingen
1.92
FC 08 Villingen
1.56

FC Nöttingen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 76 away

creates per match

FC Nöttingen
2.38
FC 08 Villingen
1.61

allows per match

FC Nöttingen
1.50
FC 08 Villingen
1.47

finishing

FC Nöttingen+0.00on par
FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nöttingen ↓

FC 08 Villingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FC Nöttingen or draw
68%
FC Nöttingen or FC 08 Villingen
78%
Draw or FC 08 Villingen
54%

Winning margin

FC Nöttingen wins by 2+
26%
FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Nöttingen 1+ goals
85%
FC Nöttingen 2+ goals
57%
FC Nöttingen 3+ goals
30%
FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals
79%
FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals
46%
FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Nöttingen (draw refunded)
59%
FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nöttingen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

FC 08 Villingen away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nöttingen attack 2.38 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.92

FC 08 Villingen attack 1.61 + FC Nöttingen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Nöttingen scores more
46%
level
22%
FC 08 Villingen scores more
32%

FC Nöttingen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Nöttingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Nöttingen vs FC 08 Villingen

FC Nöttingen beat FC 08 Villingen 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 2, 2026.

The match was played at Kleiner-Arena in Remchingen.