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FC 08 Villingen vs FC Nottingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC 08 Villingen
FC 08 Villingen
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Nottingen
FC Nottingen
8/30/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 5MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

FC 08 Villingen48%
×Draw21%
FC Nottingen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 08 Villingen
2.07
FC Nottingen
1.65

FC 08 Villingen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 93 away

creates per match

FC 08 Villingen
2.25
FC Nottingen
1.96

allows per match

FC 08 Villingen
1.34
FC Nottingen
1.89

finishing

FC 08 Villingen+0.00on par
FC Nottingen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 08 Villingen ↓

FC Nottingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

FC 08 Villingen or draw
69%
FC 08 Villingen or FC Nottingen
79%
Draw or FC Nottingen
52%

Winning margin

FC 08 Villingen wins by 2+
27%
FC Nottingen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC 08 Villingen 1+ goals
87%
FC 08 Villingen 2+ goals
61%
FC 08 Villingen 3+ goals
34%
FC Nottingen 1+ goals
81%
FC Nottingen 2+ goals
49%
FC Nottingen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC 08 Villingen (draw refunded)
60%
FC Nottingen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 08 Villingen at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

FC Nottingen away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 08 Villingen attack 2.25 + FC Nottingen defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.07

FC Nottingen attack 1.96 + FC 08 Villingen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC 08 Villingen scores more
48%
level
21%
FC Nottingen scores more
31%

FC 08 Villingen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC 08 Villingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FC 08 Villingen 3–2 FC Nottingen

FC 08 Villingen beat FC Nottingen 3-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 30, 2023.

The match was played at MS Technologie Arena in Villingen-Schwenningen.