FC Nottingen vs Bruchsal — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
FC Nottingen61%
Bruchsal21%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Nottingen creates 77% more chances
Season form · 92 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over77
- Under23
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes72
- No28
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Nottingen ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Nottingen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches
Bruchsal away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.88 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Nottingen attack 2.38 + Bruchsal defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.63
Bruchsal attack 1.48 + FC Nottingen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.49
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 61%?"
FC Nottingen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 61% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
VfR Aalen
VfR MannheimFC Nöttingen
FV Ravensburg
Essingen
Oberachern
CFR Pforzheim
Reutlingen
FC 08 Villingen
Karlsruhe II
Backnang
TSV Singen
Normannia Gmünd
Türkspor Neckarsulm
Göppinger SV
Hollenbach
Bissingen
DenzlingenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FC Nottingen host Bruchsal on Friday, 26 March 2021 at 18:00. The match is part of the Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020/2021 season.
FC Nottingen face Bruchsal (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)
Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg returns with FC Nottingen hosting Bruchsal. Match starts March 26, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
FC Nottingen host Bruchsal at Kleiner-Arena.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.