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Bruchsal vs FC Nottingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Bruchsal
Bruchsal
FT
2 – 3
FC Nottingen
FC Nottingen
9/11/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 5Städtisches Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bruchsal31%
×Draw21%
FC Nottingen47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bruchsal
1.63
FC Nottingen
2.04

FC Nottingen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 93 away

creates per match

Bruchsal
1.38
FC Nottingen
1.96

allows per match

Bruchsal
2.13
FC Nottingen
1.89

finishing

Bruchsal+0.00on par
FC Nottingen+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruchsal ↓

FC Nottingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bruchsal or draw
53%
Bruchsal or FC Nottingen
79%
Draw or FC Nottingen
69%

Winning margin

Bruchsal wins by 2+
15%
FC Nottingen wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Bruchsal 1+ goals
80%
Bruchsal 2+ goals
48%
Bruchsal 3+ goals
22%
FC Nottingen 1+ goals
87%
FC Nottingen 2+ goals
60%
FC Nottingen 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Bruchsal (draw refunded)
40%
FC Nottingen (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruchsal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

FC Nottingen away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruchsal attack 1.38 + FC Nottingen defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

FC Nottingen attack 1.96 + Bruchsal defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bruchsal scores more
31%
level
21%
FC Nottingen scores more
47%

FC Nottingen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bruchsal vs FC Nottingen

FC Nottingen beat Bruchsal 3-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 11, 2020.

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion in Bruchsal.