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FC Nottingen vs Astoria Walldorf II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FC Nottingen
FC Nottingen
CANC
18:00
Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
3/5/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 22Kleiner-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC Nottingen54%
×Draw21%
Astoria Walldorf II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Nottingen
2.17
Astoria Walldorf II
1.43

FC Nottingen creates 52% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC Nottingen
2.38
Astoria Walldorf II
1.36

allows per match

FC Nottingen
1.50
Astoria Walldorf II
1.96

finishing

FC Nottingen+0.00on par
Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nottingen ↓

Astoria Walldorf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FC Nottingen or draw
75%
FC Nottingen or Astoria Walldorf II
79%
Draw or Astoria Walldorf II
46%

Winning margin

FC Nottingen wins by 2+
33%
Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Nottingen 1+ goals
89%
FC Nottingen 2+ goals
64%
FC Nottingen 3+ goals
36%
Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
76%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
42%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Nottingen (draw refunded)
68%
Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nottingen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Astoria Walldorf II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nottingen attack 2.38 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.17

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.36 + FC Nottingen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Nottingen scores more
54%
level
21%
Astoria Walldorf II scores more
25%

FC Nottingen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Nottingen vs Astoria Walldorf II — Match Preview

FC Nottingen face Astoria Walldorf II on March 5, 2021 in this Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC Nottingen host Astoria Walldorf II at Kleiner-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.