Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Astoria Walldorf II vs FC Nottingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Nottingen
FC Nottingen
5/28/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 37Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Astoria Walldorf II30%
×Draw20%
FC Nottingen49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astoria Walldorf II
1.75
FC Nottingen
2.25

FC Nottingen creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 93 away

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf II
1.62
FC Nottingen
1.96

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf II
2.54
FC Nottingen
1.89

finishing

Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par
FC Nottingen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf II ↓

FC Nottingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf II or draw
51%
Astoria Walldorf II or FC Nottingen
80%
Draw or FC Nottingen
70%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
15%
FC Nottingen wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
83%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
52%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
25%
FC Nottingen 1+ goals
89%
FC Nottingen 2+ goals
65%
FC Nottingen 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
38%
FC Nottingen (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

FC Nottingen away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.62 + FC Nottingen defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC Nottingen attack 1.96 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Astoria Walldorf II scores more
30%
level
20%
FC Nottingen scores more
49%

FC Nottingen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Nottingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Astoria Walldorf II 4–2 FC Nottingen

Astoria Walldorf II beat FC Nottingen 4-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Walldorf.