FC Nordsjaelland 1–2 Viborg: Result & Stats

FC Nordsjaelland

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Viborg

O. Antman 14' (pen)

L. Kramer 57'

Y. Bakiz 41'

7/18/2021

Superliga · Round 1Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

FC Nordsjaelland44%

×Draw23%

Viborg33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NordsjaellandExpected goals in this matchViborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.52

FC Nordsjaelland

1.79

Viborg

1.52

FC Nordsjaelland creates 18% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 19 away

2.08

creates per match

1.85

1.19

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FC Nordsjaelland

2.08

Viborg

1.85

allows per match

FC Nordsjaelland

1.19

Viborg

1.50

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

FC Nordsjaelland-0.04on par

Viborg-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nordsjaelland ↓

Viborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

FC Nordsjaelland or draw

67%

FC Nordsjaelland or Viborg

77%

Draw or Viborg

56%

Winning margin

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

24%

Viborg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

83%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

53%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

26%

Viborg 1+ goals

78%

Viborg 2+ goals

45%

Viborg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

57%

Viborg (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nordsjaelland at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.19 · 24 matches

Viborg away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.50 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nordsjaelland attack 2.08 + Viborg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.79

Viborg attack 1.85 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

44%

level

23%

Viborg scores more

33%

FC Nordsjaelland at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Sørensen

Viborg · D

7.9

Match Events

13'

Lucas Lund Pedersen

14'

O. AntmanPenalty

41'

Y. Bakiz

54'

M. Kofod Andersen← M. Diomandé

54'

L. Coulibaly← O. Antman

56'

Simon Adingra

57'

L. Kramer↳ C. Sørensen

59'

63'

64'

66'

70'

75'

L. Walta← A. Schjelderup

75'

E. Nnamani← S. Adingra

78'

J. Mensah← Y. Bakiz

78'

M. Aaquist← S. Grønning

87'

D. Svensson← M. Frese

90+7'

90+7'

90+6'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCViborg

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots13

7Corners10

12Fouls21

Shots

20Total Shots13

7On Target6

7Off Target4

6Blocked3

14Inside Box11

6Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

473Total Passes358

380Accurate Passes270

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls21

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1