FC Noah 3–1 AEK Athens FC: Result & Stats

FC Noah

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

AEK Athens FC

8/6/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundKotaik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC Noah51%

×Draw24%

AEK Athens FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NoahExpected goals in this matchAEK Athens FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.12

FC Noah

1.72

AEK Athens FC

1.12

FC Noah creates 54% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

2.08

creates per match

1.55

0.69

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

FC Noah

2.08

AEK Athens FC

1.55

allows per match

FC Noah

0.69

AEK Athens FC

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par

AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

AEK Athens FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw

75%

FC Noah or AEK Athens FC

76%

Draw or AEK Athens FC

49%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+

28%

AEK Athens FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals

82%

FC Noah 2+ goals

51%

FC Noah 3+ goals

25%

AEK Athens FC 1+ goals

67%

AEK Athens FC 2+ goals

31%

AEK Athens FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)

67%

AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.08 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.72

AEK Athens FC attack 1.55 + FC Noah defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Noah scores more

51%

level

24%

AEK Athens FC scores more

25%

FC Noah at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff