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AEK Athens FC vs FC Noah — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Noah
FC Noah
8/15/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundOPAP Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AEK Athens FC69%
×Draw18%
FC Noah13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEK Athens FC
2.40
FC Noah
0.96

AEK Athens FC creates 150% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

AEK Athens FC
2.33
FC Noah
0.92

allows per match

AEK Athens FC
1.00
FC Noah
2.46

finishing

AEK Athens FC+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Athens FC ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

AEK Athens FC or draw
87%
AEK Athens FC or FC Noah
82%
Draw or FC Noah
31%

Winning margin

AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
46%
FC Noah wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
91%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
69%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
42%
FC Noah 1+ goals
62%
FC Noah 2+ goals
25%
FC Noah 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
84%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Athens FC at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

FC Noah away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Athens FC attack 2.33 + FC Noah defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.40

FC Noah attack 0.92 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

AEK Athens FC scores more
69%
level
18%
FC Noah scores more
13%

AEK Athens FC at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AEK Athens FC vs FC Noah

AEK Athens FC beat FC Noah 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 15, 2024.

The match was played at OPAP Arena in Athens.