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FC Motown vs FA Euro New York — USL League Two 2018

FC Motown
FC Motown
FT
1 – 3
FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
6/9/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 22Ranger Stadium Drew University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Motown53%
×Draw23%
FA Euro New York23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Motown
1.77
FA Euro New York
1.08

FC Motown creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC Motown
1.29
FA Euro New York
1.16

allows per match

FC Motown
1.00
FA Euro New York
2.24

finishing

FC Motown+0.00on par
FA Euro New York+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Motown ↓

FA Euro New York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Motown or draw
77%
FC Motown or FA Euro New York
77%
Draw or FA Euro New York
47%

Winning margin

FC Motown wins by 2+
30%
FA Euro New York wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Motown 1+ goals
83%
FC Motown 2+ goals
53%
FC Motown 3+ goals
26%
FA Euro New York 1+ goals
66%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
29%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Motown (draw refunded)
70%
FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Motown at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

FA Euro New York away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Motown attack 1.29 + FA Euro New York defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.77

FA Euro New York attack 1.16 + FC Motown defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Motown scores more
53%
level
23%
FA Euro New York scores more
23%

FC Motown at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Motown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Motown vs FA Euro New York

FA Euro New York beat FC Motown 3-1 in USL League Two on June 9, 2021.

The match was played at Ranger Stadium Drew University in Madison, New Jersey.