Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FA Euro New York vs FC Motown — USL League Two 2018

FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
FT
2 – 2
FC Motown
FC Motown
5/23/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 9Calvert Vaux Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FA Euro New York35%
×Draw27%
FC Motown38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA Euro New York
1.21
FC Motown
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

creates per match

FA Euro New York
1.27
FC Motown
1.29

allows per match

FA Euro New York
1.23
FC Motown
1.14

finishing

FA Euro New York+0.00on par
FC Motown+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA Euro New York ↓

FC Motown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FA Euro New York or draw
62%
FA Euro New York or FC Motown
73%
Draw or FC Motown
65%

Winning margin

FA Euro New York wins by 2+
15%
FC Motown wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FA Euro New York 1+ goals
70%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
34%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
12%
FC Motown 1+ goals
72%
FC Motown 2+ goals
36%
FC Motown 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
48%
FC Motown (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA Euro New York at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

FC Motown away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA Euro New York attack 1.27 + FC Motown defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

FC Motown attack 1.29 + FA Euro New York defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FA Euro New York scores more
35%
level
27%
FC Motown scores more
38%

FC Motown at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Motown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: FA Euro New York 2–2 FC Motown

FA Euro New York and FC Motown drew 2-2 in USL League Two on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Calvert Vaux Park in Brooklyn, New York.