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FC Motown II vs FA Euro New York — USL League Two 2018

FC Motown II
FC Motown II
FT
1 – 0
FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
6/21/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Eastern Conference - 16Ranger Stadium Drew University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC Motown II67%
×Draw17%
FA Euro New York16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Motown II
2.68
FA Euro New York
1.26

FC Motown II creates 113% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC Motown II
3.12
FA Euro New York
1.16

allows per match

FC Motown II
1.36
FA Euro New York
2.24

finishing

FC Motown II+0.00on par
FA Euro New York+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Motown II ↓

FA Euro New York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

FC Motown II or draw
84%
FC Motown II or FA Euro New York
83%
Draw or FA Euro New York
33%

Winning margin

FC Motown II wins by 2+
46%
FA Euro New York wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Motown II 1+ goals
93%
FC Motown II 2+ goals
74%
FC Motown II 3+ goals
49%
FA Euro New York 1+ goals
72%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
36%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Motown II (draw refunded)
81%
FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Motown II at home — creates 3.12, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

FA Euro New York away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Motown II attack 3.12 + FA Euro New York defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.68

FA Euro New York attack 1.16 + FC Motown II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

FC Motown II scores more
67%
level
17%
FA Euro New York scores more
16%

FC Motown II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "FC Motown II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: FC Motown II 1–0 FA Euro New York

FC Motown II beat FA Euro New York 1-0 in USL League Two on June 21, 2023.

The match was played at Ranger Stadium Drew University in Madison, New Jersey.