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FA Euro New York vs FC Motown II — USL League Two 2018

FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
FT
1 – 1
FC Motown II
FC Motown II
6/16/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 37Poly Prep Country Day School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FA Euro New York25%
×Draw22%
FC Motown II52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA Euro New York
1.30
FC Motown II
1.95

FC Motown II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 33 away

creates per match

FA Euro New York
1.27
FC Motown II
2.67

allows per match

FA Euro New York
1.23
FC Motown II
1.33

finishing

FA Euro New York+0.00on par
FC Motown II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA Euro New York ↓

FC Motown II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FA Euro New York or draw
48%
FA Euro New York or FC Motown II
78%
Draw or FC Motown II
75%

Winning margin

FA Euro New York wins by 2+
11%
FC Motown II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

FA Euro New York 1+ goals
73%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
37%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
14%
FC Motown II 1+ goals
86%
FC Motown II 2+ goals
58%
FC Motown II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
33%
FC Motown II (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA Euro New York at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

FC Motown II away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA Euro New York attack 1.27 + FC Motown II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

FC Motown II attack 2.67 + FA Euro New York defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FA Euro New York scores more
25%
level
22%
FC Motown II scores more
52%

FC Motown II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Motown II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FA Euro New York vs FC Motown II

FA Euro New York and FC Motown II drew 1-1 in USL League Two on June 16, 2022.

The match was played at Poly Prep Country Day School in New York City.