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FC Mk de Kinshasa vs Etoile de Kivu — Ligue 1 2019

FC Mk de Kinshasa
FC Mk de Kinshasa
AWD
0 – 3
Etoile de Kivu
Etoile de Kivu
4/12/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Mk de Kinshasa42%
×Draw29%
Etoile de Kivu29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Mk de Kinshasa
1.19
Etoile de Kivu
0.94

FC Mk de Kinshasa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 46 away

creates per match

FC Mk de Kinshasa
0.92
Etoile de Kivu
0.80

allows per match

FC Mk de Kinshasa
1.08
Etoile de Kivu
1.46

finishing

FC Mk de Kinshasa+0.00on par
Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Mk de Kinshasa ↓

Etoile de Kivu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FC Mk de Kinshasa or draw
71%
FC Mk de Kinshasa or Etoile de Kivu
71%
Draw or Etoile de Kivu
58%

Winning margin

FC Mk de Kinshasa wins by 2+
18%
Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Mk de Kinshasa 1+ goals
70%
FC Mk de Kinshasa 2+ goals
33%
FC Mk de Kinshasa 3+ goals
12%
Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals
61%
Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals
24%
Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Mk de Kinshasa (draw refunded)
59%
Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Mk de Kinshasa at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Etoile de Kivu away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Mk de Kinshasa attack 0.92 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Etoile de Kivu attack 0.80 + FC Mk de Kinshasa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Mk de Kinshasa scores more
42%
level
29%
Etoile de Kivu scores more
29%

FC Mk de Kinshasa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Mk de Kinshasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Mk de Kinshasa host Etoile de Kivu

April 12, 2026: FC Mk de Kinshasa take on Etoile de Kivu in Ligue 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.