Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Etoile de Kivu vs FC Mk de Kinshasa — Ligue 1 2019

Etoile de Kivu
Etoile de Kivu
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
FC Mk de Kinshasa
FC Mk de Kinshasa
12/15/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Etoile de Kivu40%
×Draw32%
FC Mk de Kinshasa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile de Kivu
1.02
FC Mk de Kinshasa
0.79

Etoile de Kivu creates 29% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 11 away

creates per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
FC Mk de Kinshasa
0.55

allows per match

Etoile de Kivu
1.03
FC Mk de Kinshasa
1.00

finishing

Etoile de Kivu+0.00on par
FC Mk de Kinshasa+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile de Kivu ↓

FC Mk de Kinshasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Etoile de Kivu or draw
72%
Etoile de Kivu or FC Mk de Kinshasa
68%
Draw or FC Mk de Kinshasa
60%

Winning margin

Etoile de Kivu wins by 2+
16%
FC Mk de Kinshasa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Etoile de Kivu 1+ goals
64%
Etoile de Kivu 2+ goals
27%
Etoile de Kivu 3+ goals
8%
FC Mk de Kinshasa 1+ goals
55%
FC Mk de Kinshasa 2+ goals
19%
FC Mk de Kinshasa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Etoile de Kivu (draw refunded)
59%
FC Mk de Kinshasa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile de Kivu at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

FC Mk de Kinshasa away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile de Kivu attack 1.03 + FC Mk de Kinshasa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

FC Mk de Kinshasa attack 0.55 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Etoile de Kivu scores more
40%
level
32%
FC Mk de Kinshasa scores more
28%

Etoile de Kivu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Etoile de Kivu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Etoile de Kivu vs FC Mk de Kinshasa

Etoile de Kivu beat FC Mk de Kinshasa 3-0 in Ligue 1 on December 15, 2025.