FC Midtjylland 3–1 AC Horsens: Result & Stats

FC Midtjylland

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

AC Horsens

G. Isaksen 72'

M. Kiilerich 50' (OG)

S. Gartenmann 20'

T. Santos 24'

5/14/2023

Superliga · Relegation Round - 7MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

FC Midtjylland60%

×Draw22%

AC Horsens18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MidtjyllandExpected goals in this matchAC Horsens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.96

FC Midtjylland

1.93

AC Horsens

0.96

FC Midtjylland creates 101% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 65 away

2.12

creates per match

0.85

1.07

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

FC Midtjylland

2.12

AC Horsens

0.85

allows per match

FC Midtjylland

1.07

AC Horsens

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.00on par

AC Horsens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

AC Horsens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw

82%

FC Midtjylland or AC Horsens

78%

Draw or AC Horsens

40%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

36%

AC Horsens wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

85%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

57%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

30%

AC Horsens 1+ goals

62%

AC Horsens 2+ goals

25%

AC Horsens 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

77%

AC Horsens (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.07 · 132 matches

AC Horsens away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.74 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 2.12 + AC Horsens defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.93

AC Horsens attack 0.85 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more

60%

level

22%

AC Horsens scores more

18%

FC Midtjylland at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Olsson

FC Midtjylland · M

8.9

Match Events

20'

S. Gartenmann↳ K. Olsson

24'

T. Santos↳ A. Jacobsen

37'

E. Just← A. Ludwig

44'

Kristoffer Olsson

50'

M. KiilerichOwn goal

53'

Henrik Dalsgaard

53'

Anders Jacobsen

54'

M. Jensen← M. Hannesbo

59'

F. Heiselberg← A. Gigović

63'

Charles← A. Şimşir

72'

G. Isaksen↳ K. Olsson

78'

S. Iyede← D. Kruse

78'

J. Drachmann← M. Opondo

79'

J. Gemmer← L. Musonda

84'

M. Thychosen← S. Gartenmann

84'

V. Bak← Paulinho

84'

E. Chilufya← O. Sørensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCAC

Overview

63%Possession37%

24Total Shots8

12Corners3

5Fouls6

Shots

24Total Shots8

7On Target3

8Off Target3

9Blocked2

14Inside Box6

10Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

504Total Passes296

417Accurate Passes204

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0