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AC Horsens vs FC Midtjylland — Superliga 2018

AC Horsens
AC Horsens
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
M. Jensen 90+2'
A. Sigurðarson 89' (pen)
L. Musonda 57'
G. Isaksen 41', 8'
P. Sisto 23'
8/12/2022SuperligaSuperliga · Round 5Nordstern Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

AC Horsens27%
×Draw24%
FC Midtjylland49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Horsens
1.19
FC Midtjylland
1.70

FC Midtjylland creates 43% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 132 away

creates per match

AC Horsens
1.21
FC Midtjylland
1.70

allows per match

AC Horsens
1.70
FC Midtjylland
1.18

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par
FC Midtjylland+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

FC Midtjylland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw
51%
AC Horsens or FC Midtjylland
76%
Draw or FC Midtjylland
73%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+
11%
FC Midtjylland wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals
70%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
33%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
12%
FC Midtjylland 1+ goals
82%
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals
51%
FC Midtjylland 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)
35%
FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 63 matches

FC Midtjylland away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.18 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.21 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

FC Midtjylland attack 1.70 + AC Horsens defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AC Horsens scores more
27%
level
24%
FC Midtjylland scores more
49%

FC Midtjylland at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
G. IsaksenFC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland · F
8.3

Match Events

8'
G. Isaksen↳ E. Sviatchenko
17'
H. Dalsgaard← E. Sviatchenko
23'
P. Sisto
41'
G. Isaksen↳ S. Kaba
46'
J. Drachmann← D. Kruse
46'
M. Lassen← S. Iyede
57'
L. Musonda
63'
J. Gemmer← M. Opondo
63'
L. Qamili← A. Jacobsen
67'
Henrik Dalsgaard
74'
S. Gartenmann← S. Kaba
74'
V. Lind← G. Isaksen
74'
Paulinho← J. Andersson
80'
Juninho
86'
James GomezPenalty confirmed
87'
Juninho
87'
Juninho
88'
O. Sørensen← P. Sisto
89'
A. SigurðarsonPenalty
90+2'
M. Jensen↳ L. Musonda

Possession

61%AC

Shots

23AC

Pass accuracy

54%AC

Statistics

ACFC
Overview
61%Possession39%
23Total Shots9
7Corners5
8Fouls11
Shots
23Total Shots9
8On Target6
6Off Target1
9Blocked2
20Inside Box7
3Outside Box2
Passing
61%Possession39%
472Total Passes319
391Accurate Passes223
83%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: AC Horsens vs FC Midtjylland

AC Horsens and FC Midtjylland drew 3-3 in Superliga on August 12, 2022.

Goals: G. Isaksen (8', 41'), P. Sisto (23'), L. Musonda (57'), A. Sigurðarson (89' pen), M. Jensen (90+2').

AC Horsens controlled possession (61%) and registered 23 shots to 9.

The match was played at Nordstern Arena Horsens in Horsens.