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FC Magdeburg vs Schöningen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
FT
4 – 1
Schöningen
Schöningen
9/21/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportanlage Eilsleben - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Magdeburg45%
×Draw19%
Schöningen36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Magdeburg
2.46
Schöningen
2.18

FC Magdeburg creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC Magdeburg
2.36
Schöningen
2.00

allows per match

FC Magdeburg
2.36
Schöningen
2.56

finishing

FC Magdeburg+0.00on par
Schöningen+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Magdeburg ↓

Schöningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

FC Magdeburg or draw
64%
FC Magdeburg or Schöningen
81%
Draw or Schöningen
55%

Winning margin

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
27%
Schöningen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
91%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
70%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
44%
Schöningen 1+ goals
89%
Schöningen 2+ goals
64%
Schöningen 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
56%
Schöningen (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Magdeburg at home — creates 2.36, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

Schöningen away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Magdeburg attack 2.36 + Schöningen defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.46

Schöningen attack 2.00 + FC Magdeburg defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Magdeburg scores more
45%
level
19%
Schöningen scores more
36%

FC Magdeburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: FC Magdeburg 4–1 Schöningen

FC Magdeburg beat Schöningen 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on September 21, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Eilsleben - Platz 1 in Eilsleben.