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FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Dusseldorf — DFB Pokal 2018

FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorfadvanced
12/5/2023DFB PokalDFB Pokal · Round of 16MDCC-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Magdeburg16%
×Draw17%
Fortuna Dusseldorf67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Magdeburg
1.18
Fortuna Dusseldorf
2.58

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 119% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Magdeburg
0.75
Fortuna Dusseldorf
2.67

allows per match

FC Magdeburg
2.50
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.60

finishing

FC Magdeburg+0.00on par
Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Magdeburg ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

FC Magdeburg or draw
33%
FC Magdeburg or Fortuna Dusseldorf
83%
Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf
84%

Winning margin

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
6%
Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
69%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
33%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
12%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
92%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
72%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
19%
Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Magdeburg at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Magdeburg attack 0.75 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 2.67 + FC Magdeburg defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

FC Magdeburg scores more
16%
level
17%
Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
67%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DFB Pokal: FC Magdeburg 1–2 Fortuna Dusseldorf

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat FC Magdeburg 2-1 in DFB Pokal on December 5, 2023.

The match was played at MDCC-Arena in Magdeburg.