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FC Magdeburg vs Dynamo Dresden — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dynamo Dresden
Dynamo Dresden
10/6/20182. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 9MDCC-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

FC Magdeburg46%
×Draw25%
Dynamo Dresden29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Magdeburg
1.57
Dynamo Dresden
1.19

FC Magdeburg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 69 away

creates per match

FC Magdeburg
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
0.97

allows per match

FC Magdeburg
1.42
Dynamo Dresden
1.77

finishing

FC Magdeburg+0.00on par
Dynamo Dresden+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Magdeburg ↓

Dynamo Dresden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Magdeburg or draw
71%
FC Magdeburg or Dynamo Dresden
75%
Draw or Dynamo Dresden
54%

Winning margin

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
23%
Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
79%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
46%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
21%
Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals
70%
Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals
33%
Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
61%
Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Dynamo Dresden away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Magdeburg attack 1.38 + Dynamo Dresden defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dynamo Dresden attack 0.97 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Magdeburg scores more
46%
level
25%
Dynamo Dresden scores more
29%

FC Magdeburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: FC Magdeburg 2–2 Dynamo Dresden

FC Magdeburg and Dynamo Dresden drew 2-2 in 2. Bundesliga on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at MDCC-Arena in Magdeburg.