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Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Dynamo Dresden
Dynamo Dresden
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg
8/9/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 2Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Dynamo Dresden41%
×Draw25%
1. FC Magdeburg34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Dresden
1.54
1. FC Magdeburg
1.39

Dynamo Dresden creates 11% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 84 away

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden
1.33
1. FC Magdeburg
1.52

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden
1.25
1. FC Magdeburg
1.76

finishing

Dynamo Dresden+0.00on par
1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden ↓

1. FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden or draw
66%
Dynamo Dresden or 1. FC Magdeburg
75%
Draw or 1. FC Magdeburg
59%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+
20%
1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals
79%
Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals
45%
Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals
20%
1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
75%
1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
40%
1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)
54%
1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 69 matches

1. FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.76 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.33 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.52 + Dynamo Dresden defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dynamo Dresden scores more
41%
level
25%
1. FC Magdeburg scores more
34%

Dynamo Dresden at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Dynamo Dresden 1–2 1. FC Magdeburg

1. FC Magdeburg beat Dynamo Dresden 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion in Dresden.