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FC Lugano vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Europa League 2026

FC Lugano
FC Lugano
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
10/3/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 2Kybunpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Lugano34%
×Draw35%
Dynamo Kyiv32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lugano
0.84
Dynamo Kyiv
0.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

FC Lugano
0.00
Dynamo Kyiv
1.38

allows per match

FC Lugano
0.25
Dynamo Kyiv
1.69

finishing

FC Lugano+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–116%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw
68%
FC Lugano or Dynamo Kyiv
65%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
66%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+
11%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals
57%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
21%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
5%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
56%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
19%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)
51%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 0.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 0.00 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.38 + FC Lugano defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

FC Lugano scores more
34%
level
35%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
32%

FC Lugano at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "FC Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
J. SabbatiniFC LuganoFC Lugano · M
8.2

Match Events

23'
Eloge Yao
35'
Tamás Kádár
64'
N. Dalmonte← M. Aratore
70'
A. Besedin← G. Rodrigues
71'
O. Custodio← S. Lovric
78'
F. Holender← A. Gerndt
84'
D. Harmash← V. Shepelev
86'
Artem Shabanov
88'
C. de Pena← B. Verbič

Possession

31%FC

Shots

16FC

Pass accuracy

45%FC

Statistics

FCDynamo
Overview
31%Possession69%
16Total Shots19
4Corners4
16Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots19
4On Target3
8Off Target12
4Blocked4
12Inside Box7
4Outside Box12
Passing
31%Possession69%
297Total Passes665
215Accurate Passes591
72%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

UEFA Europa League: FC Lugano 0–0 Dynamo Kyiv

FC Lugano and Dynamo Kyiv drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa League on October 3, 2019.

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (69%) and registered 19 shots to 16.

The match was played at Kybunpark in St. Gallen.