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Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Lugano — UEFA Europa League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
V. Tsygankov 90+4'
M. Aratore 45'
12/12/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 6NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv34%
×Draw31%
FC Lugano35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.01
FC Lugano
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.69
FC Lugano
0.67

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
1.38
FC Lugano
1.33

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par
FC Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

FC Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
65%
Dynamo Kyiv or FC Lugano
69%
Draw or FC Lugano
66%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
13%
FC Lugano wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
64%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
27%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
8%
FC Lugano 1+ goals
64%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
27%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
50%
FC Lugano (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.69 + FC Lugano defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.01

FC Lugano attack 0.67 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
34%
level
31%
FC Lugano scores more
35%

FC Lugano at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "FC Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
V. TsygankovDynamo KyivDynamo Kyiv · F
8.3

Match Events

17'
Stefano Guidotti
45'
M. Aratore↳ N. Dalmonte
55'
B. Vécsei← S. Guidotti
64'
H. Tsitaishvili← T. Kędziora
64'
M. Marić← N. Dalmonte
67'
Linus Obexer
77'
D. Harmash← C. de Pena
79'
Bálint Vécsei
81'
Fran Sol← A. Besedin
84'
D. Črnigoj← S. Lovric
90'
David Da Costa
90+4'
V. Tsygankov↳ H. Tsitaishvili

Possession

72%Dynamo

Shots

30Dynamo

Pass accuracy

56%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoFC
Overview
72%Possession28%
30Total Shots7
7Corners1
7Fouls11
Shots
30Total Shots7
5On Target1
14Off Target3
11Blocked3
17Inside Box3
13Outside Box4
Passing
72%Possession28%
661Total Passes272
578Accurate Passes181
87%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls11
0Yellow Cards4
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Lugano

Dynamo Kyiv and FC Lugano drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa League on December 12, 2019.

Goals: M. Aratore (45'), V. Tsygankov (90+4').

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (72%) and registered 30 shots to 7.

The match was played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Kiev.