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FC Lugano vs Bodo/Glimt — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

FC Lugano
FC Lugano
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
9/21/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 1Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Lugano28%
×Draw24%
Bodo/Glimt48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lugano
1.22
Bodo/Glimt
1.69

Bodo/Glimt creates 39% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

FC Lugano
1.00
Bodo/Glimt
1.63

allows per match

FC Lugano
1.75
Bodo/Glimt
1.44

finishing

FC Lugano+0.00on par
Bodo/Glimt+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

Bodo/Glimt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw
52%
FC Lugano or Bodo/Glimt
76%
Draw or Bodo/Glimt
72%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+
11%
Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals
70%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
34%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
12%
Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals
82%
Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals
50%
Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)
36%
Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 1.00 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bodo/Glimt attack 1.63 + FC Lugano defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Lugano scores more
28%
level
24%
Bodo/Glimt scores more
48%

Bodo/Glimt at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Lugano vs Bodo/Glimt

FC Lugano and Bodo/Glimt drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.