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Bodo/Glimt vs FC Lugano — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
11/30/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 5Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bodo/Glimt66%
×Draw18%
FC Lugano15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodo/Glimt
2.35
FC Lugano
1.04

Bodo/Glimt creates 126% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt
2.47
FC Lugano
1.56

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt
0.53
FC Lugano
2.22

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.00on par
FC Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

FC Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw
85%
Bodo/Glimt or FC Lugano
82%
Draw or FC Lugano
34%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+
43%
FC Lugano wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals
90%
Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals
68%
Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals
41%
FC Lugano 1+ goals
65%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
28%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)
81%
FC Lugano (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.47 + FC Lugano defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.35

FC Lugano attack 1.56 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more
66%
level
18%
FC Lugano scores more
15%

Bodo/Glimt at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Bodo/Glimt 5–2 FC Lugano

Bodo/Glimt beat FC Lugano 5-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at Aspmyra Stadion in Bodø.