FC Lisse 1–1 Excelsior Maassluis: Result & Stats

FC Lisse

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Excelsior Maassluis

8/26/2023

Tweede Divisie · Round 2Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FC Lisse42%

×Draw24%

Excelsior Maassluis34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LisseExpected goals in this matchExcelsior Maassluis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.46

FC Lisse

1.66

Excelsior Maassluis

1.46

FC Lisse creates 14% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 104 away

1.23

creates per match

1.16

1.77

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

FC Lisse

1.23

Excelsior Maassluis

1.16

allows per match

FC Lisse

1.77

Excelsior Maassluis

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

Excelsior Maassluis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw

66%

FC Lisse or Excelsior Maassluis

76%

Draw or Excelsior Maassluis

58%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+

22%

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals

81%

FC Lisse 2+ goals

49%

FC Lisse 3+ goals

23%

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals

77%

Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals

43%

Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)

56%

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Excelsior Maassluis away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.09 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 1.23 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.66

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.16 + FC Lisse defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Lisse scores more

42%

level

24%

Excelsior Maassluis scores more

34%

FC Lisse at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Lisse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff