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Excelsior Maassluis vs FC Lisse — Tweede Divisie 2019

Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Lisse
FC Lisse
1/28/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 20Sportpark Dijkpolder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Excelsior Maassluis52%
×Draw23%
FC Lisse25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior Maassluis
1.81
FC Lisse
1.20

Excelsior Maassluis creates 51% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 35 away

creates per match

Excelsior Maassluis
1.46
FC Lisse
1.06

allows per match

Excelsior Maassluis
1.34
FC Lisse
2.17

finishing

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par
FC Lisse+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior Maassluis ↓

FC Lisse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Excelsior Maassluis or draw
75%
Excelsior Maassluis or FC Lisse
77%
Draw or FC Lisse
48%

Winning margin

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
29%
FC Lisse wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
84%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
54%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
27%
FC Lisse 1+ goals
70%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
34%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
67%
FC Lisse (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior Maassluis at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 104 matches

FC Lisse away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.46 + FC Lisse defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.81

FC Lisse attack 1.06 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Excelsior Maassluis scores more
52%
level
23%
FC Lisse scores more
25%

Excelsior Maassluis at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Excelsior Maassluis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Excelsior Maassluis vs FC Lisse

FC Lisse beat Excelsior Maassluis 1-0 in Tweede Divisie on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Dijkpolder in Maassluis.