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FC Lisse vs Almere City II — Tweede Divisie 2019

FC Lisse
FC Lisse
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Almere City II
Almere City II
2/24/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 23Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FC Lisse31%
×Draw23%
Almere City II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lisse
1.46
Almere City II
1.81

Almere City II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC Lisse
1.23
Almere City II
1.86

allows per match

FC Lisse
1.77
Almere City II
1.69

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw
54%
FC Lisse or Almere City II
77%
Draw or Almere City II
69%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+
14%
Almere City II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals
77%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
43%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
18%
Almere City II 1+ goals
84%
Almere City II 2+ goals
54%
Almere City II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)
41%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Almere City II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 1.23 + Almere City II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Almere City II attack 1.86 + FC Lisse defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Lisse scores more
31%
level
23%
Almere City II scores more
46%

Almere City II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Lisse vs Almere City II

FC Lisse and Almere City II drew 1-1 in Tweede Divisie on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Ter Specke in Lisse.