Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Almere City II vs FC Lisse — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Almere City II
Almere City II
CANC
00:00
FC Lisse
FC Lisse
3/21/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 26Yanmar Stadion (Almere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Almere City II43%
×Draw21%
FC Lisse36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City II
1.99
FC Lisse
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 32 away

creates per match

Almere City II
2.67
FC Lisse
1.56

allows per match

Almere City II
2.08
FC Lisse
1.31

finishing

Almere City II+0.00on par
FC Lisse+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City II ↓

FC Lisse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Almere City II or draw
64%
Almere City II or FC Lisse
79%
Draw or FC Lisse
57%

Winning margin

Almere City II wins by 2+
24%
FC Lisse wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Almere City II 1+ goals
86%
Almere City II 2+ goals
59%
Almere City II 3+ goals
32%
FC Lisse 1+ goals
84%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
54%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Almere City II (draw refunded)
54%
FC Lisse (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

FC Lisse away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City II attack 2.67 + FC Lisse defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.99

FC Lisse attack 1.56 + Almere City II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Almere City II scores more
43%
level
21%
FC Lisse scores more
36%

Almere City II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Almere City II host FC Lisse

March 21, 2020: Almere City II take on FC Lisse in Derde Divisie - Saturday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Almere City II host FC Lisse at Yanmar Stadion (Almere).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.