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FC Lisse vs ACV — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

FC Lisse
FC Lisse
FT
2 – 3
ACV
ACV
8/21/2021Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 1Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FC Lisse45%
×Draw23%
ACV31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lisse
1.77
ACV
1.44

FC Lisse creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 36 away

creates per match

FC Lisse
2.37
ACV
1.75

allows per match

FC Lisse
1.13
ACV
1.17

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par
ACV+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

ACV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw
69%
FC Lisse or ACV
77%
Draw or ACV
55%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+
24%
ACV wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals
83%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
53%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
26%
ACV 1+ goals
76%
ACV 2+ goals
42%
ACV 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)
59%
ACV (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

ACV away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 2.37 + ACV defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.77

ACV attack 1.75 + FC Lisse defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Lisse scores more
45%
level
23%
ACV scores more
31%

FC Lisse at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Lisse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Lisse 2 – 3 ACV

ACV beat FC Lisse 3-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark Ter Specke in Lisse.