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ACV vs FC Lisse — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

ACV
ACV
CANC
12:30
FC Lisse
FC Lisse
5/22/2021Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

ACV40%
×Draw25%
FC Lisse35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACV
1.48
FC Lisse
1.35

ACV creates 10% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 32 away

creates per match

ACV
1.64
FC Lisse
1.56

allows per match

ACV
1.14
FC Lisse
1.31

finishing

ACV+0.00on par
FC Lisse+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACV ↓

FC Lisse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ACV or draw
65%
ACV or FC Lisse
75%
Draw or FC Lisse
60%

Winning margin

ACV wins by 2+
19%
FC Lisse wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ACV 1+ goals
77%
ACV 2+ goals
43%
ACV 3+ goals
19%
FC Lisse 1+ goals
74%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
39%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ACV (draw refunded)
54%
FC Lisse (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACV at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

FC Lisse away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACV attack 1.64 + FC Lisse defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Lisse attack 1.56 + ACV defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ACV scores more
40%
level
25%
FC Lisse scores more
35%

ACV at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ACV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ACV face FC Lisse (Derde Divisie - Saturday)

Derde Divisie - Saturday returns with ACV hosting FC Lisse. Match starts May 22, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.