FC Liefering 3–0 Floridsdorfer AC: Result & Stats

FC Liefering

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Floridsdorfer AC

V. Sulzbacher 69' (pen)

J. Hussauf 30'

Alexander Murillo 2'

3/28/2025

League #219 · Round 21Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Liefering39%

×Draw23%

Floridsdorfer AC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LieferingExpected goals in this matchFloridsdorfer AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.65

FC Liefering

1.66

Floridsdorfer AC

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

2.17

creates per match

1.46

1.83

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

FC Liefering

2.17

Floridsdorfer AC

1.46

allows per match

FC Liefering

1.83

Floridsdorfer AC

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Liefering+0.00on par

Floridsdorfer AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Liefering ↓

Floridsdorfer AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

FC Liefering or draw

62%

FC Liefering or Floridsdorfer AC

77%

Draw or Floridsdorfer AC

61%

Winning margin

FC Liefering wins by 2+

19%

Floridsdorfer AC wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FC Liefering 1+ goals

81%

FC Liefering 2+ goals

49%

FC Liefering 3+ goals

23%

Floridsdorfer AC 1+ goals

81%

Floridsdorfer AC 2+ goals

49%

Floridsdorfer AC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FC Liefering (draw refunded)

50%

Floridsdorfer AC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Liefering at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Floridsdorfer AC away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Liefering attack 2.17 + Floridsdorfer AC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.66

Floridsdorfer AC attack 1.46 + FC Liefering defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Liefering scores more

39%

level

23%

Floridsdorfer AC scores more

38%

FC Liefering at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Liefering will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

V. Sulzbacher

FC Liefering · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

Alexander Murillo↳ O. Lukić

10'

Tim Paumgartner

27'

B. Wallquist← C. Bubalović

30'

J. Hussauf

39'

Evan Eghosa

46'

M. Striednig← T. Paumgartner

46'

M. Spasić← E. Eghosa

57'

L. Gabbichler← P. Bertaccini

57'

C. Kröhn← A. Schmid

64'

John Mellberg

67'

J. Schuster← O. Lukić

67'

O. Adejenughure← J. Mellberg

69'

V. SulzbacherPenalty

70'

M. Neumann← O. Strunz

80'

G. Diakité← Alexander Murillo

87'

R. Žiković← V. Sulzbacher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFloridsdorfer

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots5

4Corners3

12Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots5

5On Target0

4Off Target3

2Blocked2

8Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

372Total Passes443

275Accurate Passes335

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3