FC Levante Badalona W 1–0 Real Sociedad W

FC Levante Badalona W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad W

Irina Uribe 62'

5/13/2023

Primera División Femenina · Round 29Camp Municipal Les Planes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

FC Levante Badalona W30%

×Draw25%

Real Sociedad W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Levante Badalona WExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.60

FC Levante Badalona W

1.24

Real Sociedad W

1.60

Real Sociedad W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 119 away

1.02

creates per match

1.65

1.55

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.02

Real Sociedad W

1.65

allows per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.55

Real Sociedad W

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levante Badalona W ↓

Real Sociedad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Levante Badalona W or draw

54%

FC Levante Badalona W or Real Sociedad W

75%

Draw or Real Sociedad W

70%

Winning margin

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+

12%

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals

71%

FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals

35%

FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals

13%

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

80%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

47%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)

39%

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levante Badalona W at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.55 · 60 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levante Badalona W attack 1.02 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.24

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Levante Badalona W scores more

30%

level

25%

Real Sociedad W scores more

46%

Real Sociedad W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

A. Tejada Jimenez

46'

N. Garrote

46'

Alejandra Bernabé← Izarne Sarasola

46'

M. Vanegas← Ana Tejada

62'

Irina Uribe↳ Y. Mrabet

71'

Yang Lina← Laura Martínez

72'

A. Poljak← J. Le Guilly

72'

Mirari Uria← Amaiur Sarriegi

79'

Nerea Gantxegi← Mari Paz Vilas

87'

R. Chikwelu← Elena Julve

87'

Nahia Aparicio← Ane Etxezarreta

90+3'

R. Chikwelu

FC

Real

13

Lete

6

▼

Etxezarre

3

▼

Tejada

12

▼

Guilly

14

▼

21

10

19

20

9

7

▼

13

16

15

14

5

21

A

Mrabet

12

Muth

8

▼

Martínez

10

▼

Vilas

11

▼

Julve

7

⚽

Uribe

Manager: Ferrán Cabello

71'▲Yang Lina←▼Laura Martínez

79'▲Nerea Gantxegi←▼Mari Paz Vilas

87'▲R. Chikwelu←▼Elena Julve

FC Levante Badalona W substitutes

17Lina23Gantxegi19Chikwelu24Bačić20Masferrer22Okobi-Okeoghene28Irene25Quesada2Parera

Manager: Natalia Arroyo

46'▲Alejandra Bernabé←▼Izarne Sarasola

46'▲M. Vanegas←▼Ana Tejada

72'▲A. Poljak←▼J. Le Guilly

72'▲Mirari Uria←▼Amaiur Sarriegi

87'▲Nahia Aparicio←▼Ane Etxezarreta

Real Sociedad W substitutes

23Bernabé22Vanegas17Poljak18Uria28Aparicio5Torre2Iparraguirre16García1Nanclares

Primera División Femenina: FC Levante Badalona W 1–0 Real Sociedad W

FC Levante Badalona W beat Real Sociedad W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on May 13, 2023.

Goals: Irina Uribe (62').

The match was played at Camp Municipal Les Planes in Sant Joan Despí.

FC Levante Badalona W vs Real Sociedad W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División Femenina: FC Levante Badalona W 1–0 Real Sociedad W